Energy Security
Energy security is becoming a real worry for the world outside the Middle East.
Fossil fuel will eventually run out. How will nations respond? China is insuring more than most. For example, its energy policy for years has been to spend zillions on hydro-electric power; and the latest developments are mentioned today:
China's announcement this week that it will construct what is likely to be the world's first operational pebble-bed nuclear reactor, ahead of the US and Europe, marks a resurgence for the nuclear industry.
Some other countries are less committed:
In the UK, the government has deferred a decision on whether to continue with nuclear power. In the US, President George W. Bush has spoken in favour of greater investment, but approval of new plants has been slow in coming.
The Japanese government has faced growing pressure to phase out nuclear plants after a series of minor but well-publicised accidents. http://news.ft.com/cms/s/205137ec-7a1a-11d9-ba2a-00000e2511c8.html
The decision of some governments to run down their existing reactors is questioned:
there is already a solid case for countries to extend the life of whatever reactors they have. What, for instance, would it profit Britain to generate 20 per cent of its power with renewable energy such as wind by 2020, if by around the same date it were to lose exactly the same share of output by taking its reactors out of operation? http://news.ft.com/cms/s/68d12ff0-7a41-11d9-9b93-00000e2511c8.html
All in all, a drop in demand for oil and gas will clearly impact stability in the ME. This is doubtless a matter for discussion when the outcome of the current political arrangements is known.
Fossil fuel will eventually run out. How will nations respond? China is insuring more than most. For example, its energy policy for years has been to spend zillions on hydro-electric power; and the latest developments are mentioned today:
China's announcement this week that it will construct what is likely to be the world's first operational pebble-bed nuclear reactor, ahead of the US and Europe, marks a resurgence for the nuclear industry.
Some other countries are less committed:
In the UK, the government has deferred a decision on whether to continue with nuclear power. In the US, President George W. Bush has spoken in favour of greater investment, but approval of new plants has been slow in coming.
The Japanese government has faced growing pressure to phase out nuclear plants after a series of minor but well-publicised accidents. http://news.ft.com/cms/s/205137ec-7a1a-11d9-ba2a-00000e2511c8.html
The decision of some governments to run down their existing reactors is questioned:
there is already a solid case for countries to extend the life of whatever reactors they have. What, for instance, would it profit Britain to generate 20 per cent of its power with renewable energy such as wind by 2020, if by around the same date it were to lose exactly the same share of output by taking its reactors out of operation? http://news.ft.com/cms/s/68d12ff0-7a41-11d9-9b93-00000e2511c8.html
All in all, a drop in demand for oil and gas will clearly impact stability in the ME. This is doubtless a matter for discussion when the outcome of the current political arrangements is known.
posted by IJ at 7:48 AM
2 Comments:
That the world will eventually run out of fossile fuels is a popular and perhaps exagerated position. Others such as Peter Huber make convincing arguments that this is simply not true.
Still this doesn't change the panic that people and states are capable of generating (such as the 'peak oil' scares).
Thank's for the comment. I just noticed it (5 December) - sorry.
Fossil fuels is one area with little faith in economic determinism. If I remember correctly, Thomas Barnett wrote that the global market would prevail in energy; it might, but on an unacceptably long political timescale. Therefore political pressure to secure national supplies is being ramped up. The G8 seemed to think they were the only players who could decide whether there should be action internationally to resolve the energy crisis; at their Summit in 2005 they invited a report from the IEA by 2008. Canada, for example, might want an earlier solution. But news comes now of an urgent Asian initiative (see the G8 blog). Anyway Russia is more anxious, and chairs the G8 in 2006.
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